A new study has found global warming is increasing the risk of widespread crop yield failures as climate extremes become more frequent and likely to disrupt multiple regions at the same time.

Professor Kadambot Siddique, Director of The University of Western Australia’s Institute of Agriculture, and an international team of researchers co-authored the study published in One Earth. 

Researchers used machine learning and crop-climate model ensembles, to show shifting patterns of climate impacts on crop yields, with increased exposure of croplands to extreme events and rising risks across key agricultural regions.

The findings revealed global warming not only increased the intensity of oscillations but also changed how they influenced rainfall, temperature and growing conditions.

The study focused on three major climate systems: the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole and North Atlantic Oscillation, and how their influence on crop yields is shifting under climate change.

The North Atlantic Oscillation is expected to become increasingly dominant in the Northern Hemisphere, while El Niño will likely intensify in the Southern Hemisphere. 

The evolving pattern raises the likelihood of simultaneous crop failures in multiple breadbasket regions, putting added pressure on global food security.

“This could mean more frequent heatwaves, floods, or droughts hitting several major crop-producing areas at the same time,” Professor Siddique said. 

The findings highlight the need to account for dynamic climate variability in strategies to enhance global food-system resilience. 

“Understanding how these climate systems interact with crop production is critical to managing future risks,” Professor Siddique said. 

“We highlight the importance of incorporating shifting teleconnections into early-warning systems and targeted adaptation strategies to enhance global food-system resilience.” 

The findings can help farmers and policymakers enhance early-warning systems and develop targeted adaptation strategies to increase food-system resilience and ensure the stability of global food-supply chains.