This opinion piece by Adjunct Professor of Social Sciences at the University of Western Australia, Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies at the Australian National University and Vice Chancellor's Strategic Fellow at Victoria University Amin Saikal originally appeared in The Age on 27 January 2025.
The fragile Gaza ceasefire continues to hold after 15 months of Israeli devastation of the Strip in response to the Hamas attacks on Israel.
That the second exchange of hostages and prisoners has taken place, bringing the total to seven female Israeli hostages and 290 Palestinian prisoners in the first part of a three-stage deal, is a remarkable feat.
For the Israeli government and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, the road ahead cannot be anything but very rocky given their unfulfilled objective of wiping out Hamas.
From the start of the crisis, Netanyahu vowed to totally uproot Hamas as a terrorist organisation and free Israeli hostages, and he made known his aspirations for Israel to play a key role in determining Gaza's future.
But in attempting to meet these ends, Israel has been subjected to global condemnation and isolation, allegations of genocidal actions and crimes against humanity. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defence minister, Yoav Gallant.
The IDF has not completely uprooted Hamas, as many analysts had predicted. Former US secretary of state Antony Blinken this month said Hamas had probably recruited as many fighters as it had lost in the battles.
The failure on these two fronts has bitterly polarised the Israeli population between those who demanded that their government negotiate with Hamas to free the hostages and end the war, and those who found solace in the continuation of the war for political, strategic and expansionist objectives.
Netanyahu and the extremists in his cabinet defied any attempt at concluding a ceasefire or peacemaking.
The cost of the war has been substantial to Israel, in more ways than one. Hundreds of soldiers have been killed and wounded. The economy, industrial output, tourism and social and administrative services have been badly affected. Most Israelis have had to cope with higher inflation. Moody's downgraded Israel's credit rating from A2 to Baa1, the lowest ever.
These developments, plus a combined urging from former US president Joe Biden and President Donald Trump, came together to prompt Netanyahu to agree to the first stage of a peace deal. It is surely a bitter pill to swallow.
Seeing Hamas fighters coming out of hiding in Gaza in sizeable numbers during the first hostage transfer - all in relatively good health and well presented - was a striking visual reminder, seen across the world, that Netanyahu's ambitions have not been realised.
Among those Israelis released in the second hostage transfer were Karina Ariev and Daniella Gilboa, who were both stationed at the Nahal Oz military base on the border with Gaza before being taken hostage. According to Ariev's sister, Karina had observed suspicious military movement and raised concerns for three months before the terrorist attack.
Gilboa's mother said her daughter had seen people she believed were Hamas militants on the border preparing for what she believed was an attack in the lead-up to October 7.
This humiliation has surely only made Netanyahu more emphatic that he is not finished with Hamas. He says the ceasefire is "temporary", and that he has the full backing of Trump to resume fighting when deemed necessary. So much so that, since the start of the ceasefire, the IDF has launched a major security operation in the West Bank, killing and wounding dozens and arresting hundreds of Palestinians in the process.
There is no enforcement mechanism for the ceasefire that could prevent him from refusing to negotiate its second stage, which requires Hamas to free all the remaining hostages, dead or alive, in return for the Israeli release of more Palestinian prisoners, along with the withdrawal of Israeli forces from all of Gaza.
The only factor that could possibly stop further military action would be Hamas' retention of the remaining hostages after the first stage, and Trump rescinding his offer of unlimited support. Until then, though, Netanyahu must face his people, and the reality of his declarations not coming to fruition.