Oscar Montes de Oca Munguia
Thesis: Predicting adoption of innovation in agriculture
There exists a considerable amount of research on the factors and mechanisms of adoption of innovation in agriculture. This expertise has created a rich collection of general principles and past examples of specific adoptions. However, there is a lack of research into how to use this existing understanding to help predict and manage the process of adoption of future agricultural technologies and practices. This research project is a response to the pressing need to apply what is already known in the adoption literature by producing better forecasts of this adoption.
The project will propose methods for forecasting at a pre-launch or within the first year of the introduction of an innovation; explore how to use historical information accurately, making valid comparisons among past diffusion curves in the complex and dynamic farming context; and propose methods to combine historical information, forecasts and expert judgement to better manage the adoption process.
Why my research is important
The objective of predicting adoption in agriculture is to inform the planning process of innovation management, including both commercial and environmental interests. There is thus a wide range of people and institutions that could benefit from this research. They include: scientists, research funders, agricultural companies, government agencies, extension professionals, and farmer organisations.
Findings from this research will help to plan for the successful adoption of new technologies and practices by farmers, by identifying the most effective interventions in the adoption process.